AI agents meet prediction markets
Devcon 7 · 14 Nov 2024 · 5:17
David examines what happens when autonomous AI agents start participating directly in prediction markets, at Devcon 7. The talk considers whether agents can meaningfully improve market accuracy and liquidity for niche questions, and what risks arise when automated agents rather than humans are placing bets and potentially manipulating thinly traded markets.
Speakers
Topics
From Devcon 7, hosted by Ethereum Foundation.
Transcript
[Musik] Hey everyone I'm David I've been building autonomous Agents for five years now and today I want to talk to you about a Agents meet prediction Markets obviously perfectly positioned after Robin Hansen prediction Markets work I don't need to Mo that much further here on the we see Hans and then you can also it poket traction over recent years however human participation poses Limits to usefulness prob all noti
that like Everywhere in life about Attention Attention Attention IF want to attract people to participate in Markets then they need to be interesting to us so we tend to participate in Markets that are sent around parp Mar Market have sort knowledge about Because I work in Industry feel about in some great but once those Markets become B more specific then I need to research and I have limited If I prediction Markets hang out with my
friends other valuable things that Limits theale the amount of prediction Markets we could feas ever have at Any Given Point in time and then some Markets are simply too Complex or uninteresting For humans I mean there's some Markets I could not even understand Which Maybe some Software system could and others I'm just not getting involved in So that Limits the types of Markets We can get involved in and finally we all know that humans by Emotion Anden and Market those won n Markets very much matter and
Markets become useless So how Dove all this AG Ty Mars TR Markets decentral of people running Agents beh particip prediction markets mechanism alongside actual prediction Market
platform Which create incentives for the Agents to Engage with Markets Open Close ETC also made simple for people to basic Run agence of Reference implementations that People Can runk and you can do so too so you basically download PE you fund it with some ex curis and then These agent will start participating In those Markets and they use um different forms of um AI there some Rule Space there some reinforcement learning we obviously have large language Model in play that is speaking to the Reference implementation
Obvious you can come andate something entirely different and working so we have s One exle Market can click into We have live Agents growing very rapidly in recent weeks over 300 now participating daily and actually on nosis where is currently running against the Omen prediction Market platform also led to a lot of usage of the safe Protocol because the Agents use obstruction over 30% of lifetime sa transactions takeo to incentivizing Agents to
participate in prediction Market so I'll speak What We are planning to do we in process of onboarding more Operators those are users like yourself you can Lally do this right now and download it and play with it there more implementations from builders you can do the and interest deepening liquidity and integrating crypto native Demand if you want to learn more about free Resources like you can learn about the system as a whole You can go to the site and see the Markets and then also learn about the data Science Angle