The 5 Biggest Lessons From Terra/Luna's Collapse, According to Tascha Che - Ep.354

Transcript

[Music] hi everyone welcome to unchained your no hype resource for all things crypto i'm your host laura shin author of the cryptopians i started covering crypto seven years ago and as a senior editor at forbes was the first mainstream media reporter to cover cryptocurrency full-time this is the may 20th 2022 episode of unchained with the crypto.com app you can buy earn and spend crypto in one place download and get 25 with the code laura link in the description point change is the easiest way to earn passive income using crypto you can safely deposit cash or cryptocurrencies to earn up to 20

annual yield there is no lending or market risk just simple high return yield farming create an account today at trydefy.cc unc and receive 40 usdc that's tri cc slash unc if you're trying to break into web 3 or help build it you'll want to come to graph day from june 2nd through the 5th in san francisco get your ticket at thegraph.com graphday today's guest is tasha che founder of tasha labs welcome tasha hi laura how are you great so happy to have you here this week you wrote an

epic thread on the collapse of tara and luna and what you said were that there were five non-obvious lessons from this fiasco before we get to those can you give people a general summary of what kind of business you think the stablecoin business actually is so in general i think uh you know stablecoin is in the business of transforming risk or volatility so the buyer of stablecoin you know average users you don't like volatility of your token prices going up and down you prefer to hold a stable value of the assets so that's why you buy stable coins so basically you sell that volatility to the stablecoin protocol and they bought the volatility

and they give you this asset that promised to be always be priced at one so it's like uh in in that sense you can you can think of them as in you know a insurance business that ensuring there's some kind of price stability of of your asset or you can think of them as in the banking business basically you know you deposit uh uh variable priced assets and uh they give you this certificate uh meaning the stablecoin that is priced at one that has uh you know zero percent uh interest rate per se right and then uh you know basically you'll hold that certificate and uh it it's uh it's promised to be to be worth one dollar so i i think uh you know

when you look at stablecoin uh protocols uh how they make money right so where does the value audit come from part of value added is uh they help they provide a service of uh guaranteeing the stable price so that is a that is a feature that peop that is demanded in the market that's why it has a positive value added right and also uh so that's also you know one way they can make money is uh you know have a surcharge to charge for the services that they provide in terms of specifically how this charge is operationally being collected you know whether it's through a redemption fee whether it's through a token that is served as a signing rich equity token um or some other mechanisms that that

specific can vary but this is one service value-added service they can provide the other way they can make money is obviously through some kind of arbitrage of of tokens if you deposit variable price tokens that has limited supply so over time you know other things equal those token prices should go up versus visa the us dollars which has a nominal depreciation you can think of the you know nominal gdp because the money supply of us dollar grows uh you know broadly aligned with the nominal gdp growth which is about five six percent a year so you think of that as a nominal depreciation against the fixed supply assets of usd token so in that sense over the long run these these protocols

there is a long-term arbitrage opportunity there even if they don't do anything short-term investment with your assets so so that's how i look at these uh you know you can think of that as a insurance business as a you know banking business and in your tweet thread you laid out what seems to be a viable scenario in which a stable coin issuer could make money but obviously with tara luna things went wildly wrong what do you think caused tara luna's downfall okay so uh this is a very interesting question because you know after the luna fall a lot of people are saying okay under collateralized stablecoin definitely do not work well i think that's wrong i think they definitely do

work uh why do i think so because they do work in real life um there are about 200 fiat currency in the world and about 40 of them run a fixed exchange rate either visa v us dollar or a visa v a euro or a basket of the currencies so you can think of like 30 40 percent of fiat currencies in the world try to maintain a stable pack um versus a larger fiat token and about 30 of them are runs the so-called floating exchange rate and the rest of them are sort of in between so central banks usually you know monitor the value of their currencies their exchange rate

to make sure it's stable it fluctuates in a you know kind of a predefined band but it's not like a fixed per se but my point is you know a lot of the fiat currencies in the world you can think of them as stable coins and they are under collaterized why because you can look at foreign reserve to abroad money ratios of all the fiat currencies in the world i think on the average it's like 35 so it's not like if you have a fixed exchange rate visa fee the u.s dollar for example if you're a uae right if you're a panama you you you run a fixed exchange rate visa the us dollar but does that mean that every money that you issue is backed by one dollar of usd no it's about you know again 35 percent uh

reserved to abroad money ratio that's the average so you can say oh all these are fixed exchange rate tokens they are under qualitized stable coins but there are some important you know differences here then you know obviously the question is okay why do these work why why does uh luna not work i think the most important difference here is that does the token itself does this currency itself have a uncorrelated demand what was the demand for a stable asset um so in fiat currency's cases you know every country is you can think of it as a sovereign economic system so you have real world trade and commerce activities

those all use the local fiat currency so it's part of the local economic system and its demand is being supported by the real economic activities you use these to pay transactions local prices are priced in local currency uh governments use these to accept tax payments and they pay their employees of public sector using their local currency so all these activities are using the local currency as a medium exchange and a unit account and those are the organic natural demand for the local currency that is uh you know uncorrelated with uh the need to pack what uh against the us dollar or or not so that means you know you have a natural floor of demand as long as the

economic activities does not go to zero which is pretty improbable but if you look at online stable coins you do not have that luna for example ust is supported by the lunar token which you can think of as the collateral asset for the ust but you know luna has a ecosystem yes but it's uh very very small compared to any of the real real economies uh even the small nation states so you you have in the luna ecosystem you know 70 80 percent of the um you know tbl used to be the anchor protocol which was entirely right writing on the ust deposit rate of being like a 20 right so that that's that's entirely tied to ust and you also the rest of the

uh ecosystem liquidity a large part of it is just luna staking token staking um and you have some d5 protocols but those also you know tend to center around the use case of luna and usd so the ecosystem is really is quite small you don't have the luxury of of of a typical fiat currency being like being as a result as the asset uh collateral asset with uncorrelated demand yeah and you sort of started to hint at this but another part of the tweet thread was that you said another lesson from this was that fast expansion without actual network effect equals and then you put a skull and crossbones uh which you were kind of implying that

anchor kind of drew a lot of people in really fast but that it wasn't actually creating a network effect which i you know which also really struck me i don't know if you wanted to add more on that yeah so so you know um back in the days uh you know i put out some uh some tweets on on on twitter about the sustainability of uh luna and then the the the lunar tribe try to argue with me and say you know look at the ust adoption growing so fast there's a huge network effect in my view there's zero network effect for a stable coin because your stablecoin is a utility product the the entire feature of the stablecoin is to guarantee it's worth one dollar

if you take that feature away there's nothing left um so so this is another important differentiation from from any fiat currency that runs a fixed exchange rate because you can have a fiat token um you you can you know pack to u.s dollar you have a stable exchange that's all well and good but you still you are your own sovereign currency you you're the feature or the selling point of your currency is not like you're worth one dollar the selling point is you're providing a service in real economy as a medium exchange and the unit account in your own economy so if you cannot maintain that if you can maintain a one dollar pack great if you cannot well that's not the end of the world um you still have a economic ecosystem that runs on your local currency versus

the stable coin the entire value proposition rise on the point that you you are being worth one dollar if you take that away nothing is left that's why i think it's kind of a misguided effort for a lot of you know algo stable coin protocols to try to business dev their adoption uh try to you know get into more d5 protocols to be used as collaterals or involved in divide bar and landing or to get on other chains i think all these efforts if your underlying collateral assets do not have a good network effect uh like a fiat currency does then all most of these efforts will be wasted because uh if you if you lose a peg it's like that's that's the game over yeah

so in a moment we're going to talk about also the network effect for the reserve asset but first a quick word from the sponsors who make this show possible graph day will be a giant leap in the growth of web3 whether you're just breaking into web3 or already building and defining it the future will meet the present in sf june 2nd through 5th come meet and party with your online friends irl and hear cutting edge developments in the web3 stack revealed by web3 founders and visionaries pushing forward decentralized protocols and applications then build at graph hack compete for over four hundred thousand dollars worth of bounties and learn best practices from top developers in the space like nader dabit and camila ramos get your ticket at the graph.com

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unc back to my conversation with tasha so another point again that just really struck me was that you said it's a network effect for the reserve asset in this case for luna not for the stable coin itself that matters and that to me said everything because that was precisely why luna just plummeted the second that the peg uh wasn't wasn't holding because the only reason for its existence was just to try to prop up ust but since that was already falling there was no other reason for anybody to try to own luna and and frankly hold on to it rather than sell it immediately so yeah yeah which i just thought was was

so spot on um but do you want to talk about that point and then also uh another one of your takeaways which was you said smaller is beautiful um which i you know believe you were referring to just the general um ecosystem of any particular stablecoin yeah so the network in fact to me you know um the closest resemblance i can think of as a typical fiat currency in the crypto world would be the you know blockchain platform's native token for those blockchain platforms that has a more diverse set of use cases so i'm talking like uh you know ethereum or um you know even you can include a new new ones solano avalanche these are apparently all very new so their network effect is pretty weak

and all the use cases on chain are quite quite correlated right now you have d5 you have nft not much anything else right but you can think of these still as like an emerging economic ecosystem my framework of looking at these uh you know platforms would be like uh you know uh nation national economies in the universe i think they're going to be in coming years a growth to be more com more complex more diversified economic ecosystems that are similar that mirrors the physical economies in in in the nation states so i think the native tokens for those will be will be a good place to start in terms of thinking of your your reserve assets so and if but if you're like a stable coin that you you you have like a brand new

reserve assets like you know frags for example they have this um you know essentially a like uh sanyo rage sure token which is a fracture so but but you think of this token it doesn't have much of lc use cases okay you can use it like uh you know staking something in d5 but that's kind of a sort of uh semi ponzi-ish you know use cases i would say right so so so then you you you want to think about how do you how do how do you create a uncoordinated uncorrelated organic on-chain use cases for these collateral tokens that you know the network effect for those tokens are going to shore up your demand when things go haywire so so so that's one and then uh like you

said i also mentioned you know smaller is beautiful because you know obviously when you invest in any enterprise any project any stable calling project also you want you wanted to be big you wanted to make as much money as possible right to become a market leader but this is also a kind of a special case a special sector because it's really a crucial infrastructure in the on-chain economy for any like a blockchain platform so you think of you know if you build a new layer once what kind of key infrastructure do you need you need a bridge you need an amm and you need a stable coin um those are like a key infrastructure for for for the on chain like a financial system to to function smoothly so

i think you you it's already this stable coin sector already serves a very you know systemic uh importance role in the crypto economy on top of that so if you if you if these protocols grow really big and like in in the lunar case you know they depacked and they don't have any lender of last resort to actually build them out to actually help help her to by the u.s ust right with uh with the national economies that in in nation states that at least you have some lender last resort of you know in international landing facilities um that you can you can borrow from other countries essentially to temporarily like shore up the demand of your

native fiat if you have kept a drastic capital flight or something so in the uh in the stablecoin world you don't you don't really have that whether we are going to where we will uh see some something like that being like a cross protocol insurance uh mechanism or lender of last resort uh that is a private sector based i don't know but right now we don't that means the bigger you are the harder it is to find people to rescue you because they're they're a handful of uh larger players so with you know sufficient liquidities in the crypto space you can name them you can pretty much you know count them with your two hands but you know if you're if your market cap goes beyond that if you like d pass severely in enough you just

really don't have people to rescue you so i think the more a healthy ecosystem would be if we have uh you know 10 to 20 smaller medium-sized stable coin projects that they have their own packing designs they have own like a separate collateral basis that would be a more resilient ecosystem compared to what we have now which you have usdt usdc and the third one used to be ust so uh so yeah i think uh this is something for also for the blockchain platforms themselves to think obviously like protocols like near they're already you know doing that though i don't know if their motivation is uh is uh as i

described but if i were a layer one protocol this would be something that i would build or at least collaborate with some projects to build on my platform as a sort of semi-public good because this is like basic infrastructure it's not necessarily i would i would necessarily need this stablecoin protocol to to be super big but you know it provides a key service on my platform that's all so i think a smaller uh smaller in size uh you that in itself has you know more more resilience filled in and so at the moment the terror community is voting on a proposal put forward by dokwan the co-founder of terraform labs in which he would like to fork the chain and call the original chain tara classic

and basically give various um people who held either luna or tara previously um new tokens what do you think of that plan and also just in general what do you think would be the best way for tara to move forward oh um i do not i do not have the answer for tara basically i but but the thing is that if you um well you can argue okay you have name brand name recognition though right now you know how much the brand equity is worth whether it's positive value or negative value i don't know um so uh and you also have a community of people right though like a lot of people are pretty grudgy like right now pretty

angry right so if you have a new um if you want to build a new stable coin you you probably want to like uh over collateralize it go with the you know more of a die model for example basically to make sure that the probability of this thing goes unpack is extremely extremely small if they want to revive the thing i don't i don't i have no idea about the prospect of how successful that would be and you mentioned frax finance earlier um but given everything that you've said which stable coins are you excited about i'm i'm excited about the usdc i you know uh for you

you you can argue okay centralized they can scale um you know conversigation risk uh so on and so forth but you know as as at least it's backed by actual us dollar cash or liquid us dollar assets so um utility wise uh you you should you know the pack should stay you know so um if if we're talking about stablecoin as a utility product then this product fulfills its utility pretty well so um in terms of uh you know uh stable algo stable coins um i think people are they're they're different designs people are exploring different mechanisms but i think there has been some consensus emerging that you need some kind of

collateral it cannot be just a dynamic adjustment uh you know scheme like like luna so um facts that i mentioned that there are one model which is uh if you think about it it's it's kind of like a fiat currency that runs a packed exchange rate because you you are collateralized you know fiat currency they have foreign reserves that they can use to open market operation to defend their currency so in frax case it's a usdc right so um it has foreign assets it's the percentage foreign assets should be pretty high the rest of your collateral does not have a you know does not have a

uncorrelated demand on chain right now so i think uh if you have a collateral token that has a strong network effect um the the stronger it is uh the lower your your your your reserve ratio can be as i said the median reserve ratio for fiat currencies are 30 35 percent all right well i guess this brings us to the last point that you made in your tweet thread which is you said regulatory standards are a nuisance until they're not so what do you think will happen regulatory uh wise now that tara luna has imploded and how do you think that will affect the growth of the stable coin space from here on out obviously i'm not a government so i

cannot say what governments are thinking so but i think the trend is uh it's drawing a lot of attention right so um especially for in the countries that issue the fiat currency that uh stable coins are packed on meaning u.s united states uh the regulators uh you know should be thinking pretty hard about how to regulate this and the frameworks they would use you know like we mentioned at the beginning you can think of these businesses uh as a similar business model as insurance or banking so i think a regulatory frameworks in those sectors should at least land some of your points to to the regulations of stable coins the other thing is um

there is also you know uh when i say regulatory standards it doesn't necessarily have to come from government right so the other day i posted on twitter um that you know i i think a stable coin industry can use something like a basel agreement so if people are not familiar with the basel agreement in international banking it's basically a multilateral cross-country kind of uh standard banking standard uh set up in the 1980s after a bunch of uh banking crisis in the 70s in multiple countries so you know if the baseline agreement is like it has a set of standards you know as a bank your your your capital ratio should be this much your leverage ratio should be this much your liquidity ratio so and

so forth right but but basel itself does not have any regulatory authority so it's not like uh as a country's uh you know uh financial regulator it has the legal mandate to actually enforce any of this it's just that you know international agreement um it's a it's a best practice if you want to join great if you don't want to join nobody is forcing you so but if you join you know uh this is a you know brownie point on your reputation obviously as a bank right so um it can facilitate uh it can it can help if you if you uh uh you know comply with the basel agreement um you know other other banks who do the same look at you favorably they're more inclined to do

business with you and you have more you know confidence among your users so again this is all voluntary set up as a multilateral you know agreement to preserve the reputation of the industry essentially okay so it's a public good that is not like legally enforced or enforced by uh you know any country's uh uh regulatory regimes so i think something similar will be you know really useful uh for for the stable coin industry something that you know across different protocols uh um you know come together to think about what would be the standards that that the industry should abide by you know without having any like legal enforcement or outside uh

regulators coming to regulation uh threat uh you're banging on your head yeah some kind of mandate yeah i totally agree i and and by the way people definitely should check out this thread and um you might have even put it into a post i believe or at least some i feel like i saw a post on this um but you have a newsletter do you want to tell people where people can find that yeah sure just go to tashalabs.com newsletter uh it's a free newsletter i put out you know industry analysis and web3 outlook um to give people an edge um and to make people smarter about this industry it's totally free it's just that i enjoy doing that so

great well it's been so much fun having you on unchained thanks for coming on the show glad to be here thank you don't forget next up is the weekly news recap stick around for this week in crypto after this short break join over 10 million people using crypto.com the easiest place to buy earn and spend over 150 cryptocurrencies spend your crypto anywhere using the crypto.com visa card get up to eight percent cashback instantly plus 100 rebates for your netflix spotify and amazon prime subscriptions download the crypto.com app now and get 25 with the code laura link in the description thanks for tuning in to this week's news

recap tara struggles to revive amidst infighting and regulatory pressure in the wake of ust's collapse the terra luna community sought a way forward even as it demanded more details on what happened to the luna foundation guard's 3 billion crypto reserve and as regulators came knocking terraform labs co-founder do kwan made two proposals to revive the chain both were massively criticized by the community and even by big names like ethereum creator vitalik buterin and binance ceo chiang pang zhao jo kwan's third proposal consisted of forking terra into a new chain without an algorithmic stablecoin the idea is to rename the current chain terra classic

and the current native token as loon c luna classic the new chain quant proposes would be called terra with the native token luna the new chain would have 1 billion luna tokens and would be airdropped across luna and classic stakers luna classic holders residual ust holders and essential app developers of tara classic the proposal was put out for an on-chain vote on wednesday as of press time thursday afternoon it seems it is going to pass as it has the support of terraform labs and terra builders alliance a community of developers and builders within the tarot ecosystem however some validators are not fans all node ceo constantine boyco

romanovsky said to the block the whole governance process of this proposal looks like a dictatorship model it looks like the launch of the new chain is decided even before voting is finished as for the three billion dollars in bitcoin reserves the luna foundation guard which was in charge of defending the ust peg with the bitcoin finally sheds some light on what happened according to an announcement on twitter when ust started de-pegging lfg said it converted the 80 000 bitcoins or 3.1 billion dollars in its reserve to ust to defend the peg after the massive sell-off it was left with a reserve of 313 bitcoin or 8 million according to elliptic a blockchain

analytics company 52 000 bitcoins were moved into gemini and the remaining 28 000 were moved into binance however tom robinson co-founder of elliptic said to coindesk that beyond that we can't really see how it's been used in other related terror news south korean authorities are now investigating the terror collapse a specialized financial crimes unit called grim reaper will look into the methods terraform labs used to attract investors bond has been charged with tax evasion and faces a penalty of 100 billion won or 78.5 million dollars for failing to pay corporate and income tax the terraform lab's legal team resigned

shortly after the crash making these issues harder for quan to navigate tether releases its long-awaited attestation report on thursday tether or usdt the world's largest us dollar stablecoin released its first asset station report in six months after the ust chaos this report was highly anticipated as investors have been cashing out of stablecoins with usdt supply dropping seven billion dollars in the past few days alone tether reported a reduction in its commercial paper holdings by 17 from december 2021 through march 2022 from 24.2 billion to to 19.9 billion dollars

usdt has a market cap of 74 billion dollars and is fully backed according to the attestation made by accountancy firm mha cayman which reported that usdt is backed by assets that amounted to at least 83 billion dollars this latest attestation further highlights that tether is fully backed and that the composition of its reserves is strong conservative and liquid said paulo arduino the cto of tether in a statement as promised it demonstrates a commitment by the company to reduce its commercial paper investments in other stablecoin news day an algorithmic stablecoin from the d5 protocol deuce finance lost its peg against the dollar this week

day is now trading around 60 cents according to coin market cap after hitting a low of 51.7 cents on monday chinese bitcoin miners are back according to new data from the cambridge center for alternative finance or ccaf china has reclaimed its place as a bitcoin mining world leader even after a ban that prohibited crypto trading and mining in china last year the asian country is now the second largest producer of hashrate the data was disclosed in the cambridge bitcoin electricity consumption index or cbeci whose goal is to map mining activity around the world based on the geolocational data reported by mining pools in december 2021 china accounted for

21.1 percent of the global hashrate with that figure dropping to zero percent after the ban as was shown by previous data from cambridge web3 wallace had a big week robin hood one of the biggest stock trading platforms in the us said it plans to develop a new non-custodial mobile wallet for web3 according to the company's blog customers will be able to hold the keys for their own crypto and access dapps to trade and swap crypto with no network feeds store nfts and connect to nft marketplaces earn yield using their assets and access a variety of crypto assets robinhood's wallet will begin testing this summer and has a waitlist for early access

the company intends to have the product available for all its customers by the end of this year coinbase also announced the release of a web3 wallet selected customers will have the ability to access web3 decentralized applications directly from the coinbase app users will be able to buy and hold nfts trade on dexes and even use some of the major d5 platforms like compound and curve to borrow lend and swap tokens notably coinbase users will be able to explore decentralized applications without having to manage a recovery phrase multi-party computation technology allows this innovative experience and enables users to have a dedicated on-chain wallet that coinbase helps keep secured

crypto adoption ramps up cloudflare announced plans to run and fully stake ethereum validator nodes making it the first publicly traded company to make such a move according to evan van ness over the next few months cloudflare will launch and fully stake ethereum validator notes on the cloudflare global network as the community approaches its transition for proof of work to proof of stake with the merge the company said in its announcement it added this is just the start of our commitment to help the next generation of web 3 networks additionally spotify will start testing nfts on its platform according to a report by music ally

spotify will test entities with select users based in the us and nfts will appear under the artist's songs and albums but users will need to go to an external marketplace to make their purchase here's another reminder not your keys not your coins in light of coinbase's announcement that the exchange would retain user assets in the event of a bankruptcy officials from joe biden's administration are pressing congress to demand cryptocurrency exchanges keep their customers money separate from corporate funds don't think you actually own your tokens when you go into a digital wallet said sac chair gary gensler however gus culdabella partner at trueventures tweeted that the biden administration's logic gets a lot wrong

polta bella thinks the problem is how bankruptcy law treats exchange wallets for this reason a legitimate fix that forces cryptocurrency exchanges to keep their customers money separate from their own corporate funds is no fix at all it's not the source of the problem and it doesn't solve the legal issue he wrote on a related note sec chair gary gensler testified before the house appropriations subcommittee on financial services and general government this week and asked for a bigger budget to control the crypto space two other regulation adjacent stories caught my attention reuters reported that finance ministers from g7 countries are calling for more crypto legislation in light of the recent turmoil in the crypto asset

market the g7 urges the fsb or financial stability board to advance the swift development and implementation of consistent and comprehensive regulation the ministers wrote in the draft document trm labs a blockchain analytics company launched a platform for users to report cryptoscams and other illicit activity trm is currently using raw data from the blockchain to create insights to investigate crypto frauds and financial crimes for more info on trm labs subscribe to my premium bulletin newsletter where i did an exclusive interview with arie breadboard ceo testing testing ethereum merch's biggest test is set for june ethereum's main

public test net robsten is set to go through the merge in june merging ropsten is a huge testing milestone toward ethereum's main net merge which is projected to happen in a few months the merge is the most anticipated event of the year in the ethereum ecosystem at that time the ethereum will transition from the proof-of-work consensus mechanism to proof-of-stake even though there is no exact data date set for the merge ethereum core developer preston van loon hinted on twitter that it would happen sometime this year time for fun bits hmm nobody has any luna apparently the only ones that lost

millions of dollars in the tara luna fiasco were retail investors according to some tweets and press releases major vc firms and investment funds have confirmed that they had no or very little exposure to luna among these companies are pantera capital galaxy digital multicoin dragonfly framework and on juno which disclosure is a sponsor of my shows on wednesday after saying nothing for more than 10 days galaxy digital ceo mike novogratz broke his silence he said galaxy has no exposure to algorithmic stable coins this is coming from a man who has a tattoo of the lunatokin on his arm he said my tattoo will be a constant reminder that venture investing requires

humility on the latest episode of the chopping block dragonflies his qureshi said he wasn't inclined to believe all these stories everyone i talked to says they are okay somebody must be lying he said laughing in agreement with haseeb kevin joe the chopping block guest added there is no way that's true but what would be even more harrowing is that if it was true it would mean that the insiders dumped on retail and got out unscratched eventually a few companies admitted to having exposure to luna delphi digital said on thursday it has a large unrealized loss and hashed wallet a venture fund sold 3.5 billion dollars according to on-chain data

thanks so much for joining us today to learn more about tasha stablecoins and the tara luna fallout check out the show notes for this episode unchained is produced by me laura shin with help from anthony yoon daniel ness mark murdoch shashank and clk transcription thanks for listening [Music] you